Maegan Hendow

This policy brief gives a 360-degree overview on what we currently know about the extent of irregular migration across the EU. Based on MIrreM’s analysis and aggregation of estimates available for 12 European countries (including the UK) in the period 2016 to 2023, the irregular migrant population can be estimated at between 2.6 and 3.2 million. The previous Clandestino estimate was 1.8 to 3.8 million for the same 12 countries in 2008. This suggests that the number of the irregular migrant population has not substantially changed at the aggregate level for these countries – although there have been important changes in individual countries. In addition, the policy brief also surveys what information is available and still lacking in regard to trends and patterns of irregular movement, including what information we will have on ‘overstayers’, a key proportion of the irregular migrant population identified under the Clandestino project.

This working paper is aimed at researchers and others interested in understanding and classifying policy and practical approaches to migrant irregularity. Addressing irregular migration has become an important focus within the migration policy field. Policymakers tend to emphasise the need to address irregular arrivals, yet in fact have a wide range of policy responses at their disposal. MIrreM research has highlighted the wide range of policy responses to the presence of irregular migrants, including how policies provide pathways into and out of irregularity (Hendow et al., 2024); this working paper aims to classify them within a typology. It builds on the existing MIrreM conceptualisation of migrant irregularity (Kraler & Ahrens, 2023), focusing on the intersection between the pathways into and out of irregularity and the stocks of irregular migrants.

Based on 20 countries across Europe, North America and North Africa, this report synthesises key trends and patterns of national policy approaches towards migrant irregularity, highlighting commonalities and differences across various contexts. In particular, it examines three key research questions: how have irregular migration policies evolved over time and in response to what; what pathways into and out of irregularity have these policies produced or aimed to address; and what challenges have hindered policy implementation. In doing so, the report aims to contextualise irregular migration policy changes, as well as how such policies can channel migrants into or out of irregularity.