This policy brief gives a 360-degree overview on what we currently know about the extent of irregular migration across the EU. Based on MIrreM’s analysis and aggregation of estimates available for 12 European countries (including the UK) in the period 2016 to 2023, the irregular migrant population can be estimated at between 2.6 and 3.2 million. The previous Clandestino estimate was 1.8 to 3.8 million for the same 12 countries in 2008. This suggests that the number of the irregular migrant population has not substantially changed at the aggregate level for these countries – although there have been important changes in individual countries. In addition, the policy brief also surveys what information is available and still lacking in regard to trends and patterns of irregular movement, including what information we will have on ‘overstayers’, a key proportion of the irregular migrant population identified under the Clandestino project.
Released 04 March 2025
The extension of temporary protection until March 2026 has given the EU and its Member States additional time to monitor the development of the war in Ukraine and to identify possible exit strategies from temporary protection. However, recent diplomatic tensions between the United States and Ukraine have made predicting the war’s trajectory even more difficult. To ensure that Ukrainians under temporary protection do not remain in indefinite uncertainty, efforts to develop EU wide structured exit strategies from temporary protection must continue. An examination of the corresponding policies of individual European states can provide valuable insight in this regard.
Released 04 March 2024
While the Temporary Protection Directive has been praised for its success in providing immediate assistance to millions, uncertainty remains about what will happen once it ends. One option that has recently gained attention is to further prolong temporary protection beyond March 2025. It may seem straightforward to simply extend temporary protection by another year, yet this may create some important challenges beyond deferring longer term decisions.
Released 04 September 2023
The EU Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) has now been activated for 18 months, providing immediate assistance to millions who fled the war in Ukraine. While it has been praised for its success, uncertainty remains about what will happen once it ends. Discussions have put forth ideas ranging from EU-wide approaches to individual national solutions. The urgency of this matter, however, has yet to fully resonate with policymakers and commentators, even as we reach the halfway point of the directive’s maximum duration. Just 18 months remain to forge a plan for what will come after.