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The Regional Migration Outlook for Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) presents an analysis of the key events and trends that shaped migration in the EECA region in 2022. Simultaneously, it offers a cautious outlook into areas and issues that may affect migration and mobility to, within and from the EECA in 2023. In a non-exhaustive way, the publication addresses developments in the twelve EECA countries (based on ICMPD’s regional division) – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. The analysis is based on ICMPD’s regional expertise and desk research from official and public data sources.

This trend assessment is part of an ongoing series launched by ICMPD’s Policy, Research and Strategy Directorate. These assessments analyse emerging trends related to the field of migration based on expert opinions and ICMPD’s knowledge and insight on the subject in the context of changing geopolitical situations and external shocks that may influence existing trends of migration. In this vein, this study examines the relationship between food security in Tunisia, compounded by the recent war in Ukraine, and migration in the region.

Emotions are regularly cited as vital components of effective strategic communication in the world of migration and beyond. However, until this report, there was relatively little guidance about how emotions should be used in migration policy communication. Emotions are vital to persuasion because attitudes have a cognitive (thinking) component and an emotional (feeling) component. Moreover, eliciting emotions causes involuntary but predictable physiological and behavioural reactions. Emotions can be used in communication to make one’s messages more resonant and impactful on both attitudes and behaviours, supporting policy objectives via persuasion.

Communicators should choose the desired emotional reaction according to the desired physiological and behavioural reaction using existing psychological schema, one of which this report analyses with 32 separate emotions and physiological reactions. Eliciting unsuitable emotions may have adverse reactions from audiences. Communicators can use this report’s recommendation and framework to ensure that the emotions, physiological and desired behaviours of their campaigns are aligned and thus effective. Narratives, personal-based messages, facial expressions, body language, and aesthetics can be used to create emotional resonance and reduce psychological distance. Frames, ordering (“emotional flow”), intensities, and certain combinations can also be used to elicit different emotions with predictable outcomes.

Emotions should be used to make one’s argument more resonant but the argument should not be simply based on the emotional reaction—the “appeal to emotion” logical fallacy. Indeed, for emotion-based communication to work, it should also use facts, values, identities, and efficacy. Emotion-based communication in the field of migration, although widely used, is largely untested—communicators should test different approaches but also can take lessons from other fields such as corporate, health, and climate change communications.

This report critically analyses 10 examples of good emotion-based migration communication, highlighting the different emotions and physiological reactions that they are likely to induce, and to what extent these are in line with the communication campaign’s stated objectives.

Introduction ICMPD’s Migration Outlook presents a brief analysis of recent migration and policy trends and provides an outlook on developments and events to watch out for in 2023

The EU could see an influx of up to four million more Ukrainians in 2023, and Russia will seek to further weaponise migration from North Africa and the Middle East. These are just two of the forecasts made in the latest Migration Outlook report 2023 from the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD).

This report attempts to identify patterns and contradictions linked to internal displacement before and after 24 February 2022. It looks at the factors determining the legal status of IDP in the past, and the dynamics and peculiarities witnessed since the time of Russia’s invasion. The second part discusses the administrative, integration, financial and infrastructural traps that IDPs are facing and proposes concrete recommendations to resolve them. It also assesses the existing administrative resources and institutional progress made. One important observation is that most of the current problems largely existed since 2014 but have enormously grown in size in 2022.

Rural communities in North Africa and the Middle East are confronted with a myriad of context-specific challenges. While food security is rising on the global and regional agendas, countries are experiencing a demographic decline in rural areas, important shortcomings in rural development and environmental degradation resulting from resource overexploitation and climate change. For concerned communities, the conjunction and intensification of these trends raises serious questions as to their ability to cope now and in the near future. This study is devoted to the analysis of the migration phenomenon in the South Mediterranean’s rural areas. It focuses on identifying and explaining rural trends of migration, including incoming and returning flows. To do so it draws on a multi-disciplinary and synthetic examination of the situation in five countries: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia. The results and recommendations arising from the study are meant to consolidate knowledge on migration in the Euro-Mediterranean region in line with the target 10.7 of the UN sustainable development goals to achieve safe, orderly and regular migration. 
 

This study is carried out within the scope of Enhancement of Entrepreneurship Capacities for Sustainable Socio-Economic Integration (ENHANCER) Project, which is funded by the European Union and implemented by the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD).

Migration sensitive Local Entrepreneurship Ecosystem (LEE) Analyses have been carried out in 11 provinces of Türkiye; Adana, Ankara, Bursa, Gaziantep, Hatay, İstanbul, İzmir, Kayseri, Konya, Mersin, and Şanlıurfa. The distinct feature of these analyses than the ones already conducted is the inclusive approach for Syrians under Temporary Protection (SuTP). Through ecosystem analyses, the challenges and opportunities for the SuTP entrepreneurs as well as of their relations with ecosystem actors have been identified and policy recommendations are presented for improvement of local entrepreneurship ecosystem focusing on SuTP entrepreneurs.

Unique collaboration bringing together migration expertise, a local university and the private sector, opens up prospects for the local population, business location and companies

On 15 and 16 November 2022, the Ministerial Conference of the Salzburg Forum took place in Bucharest, Romania. ICMPD Director General Michael Spindelegger was invited to speak on behalf of ICMPD. 

On 10 November 2022, ICMPD and the Kingdom of Morocco signed the Agreement between ICMPD and the Government of the Kingdom of Morocco concerning the establishment of the ICMPD’s Representation in the Kingdom of Morocco

The infographic represents a snapshot of migration from Russia following the partial mobilisation that was announced in late September 2022.  This visualisation was first published in the Prague Process Quarterly Review No 32 July-September 2022.