Hugo Brady

This commentary reflects on the major migration-related policy developments over the past four years that influenced or culminated in the EU’s new Pact on Migration and Asylum. It describes a radically changed landscape since 2020, when governments — principally out of realpolitik — broke taboos, one by one, right across the migration policy spectrum, a trend which looks set to continue after the European elections on 6-9 June.   

Geopolitics is accelerating reform of the EU’s border and asylum regime. An external European frontier that once only existed on paper is taking shape. And Lukashenko’s hybrid attack may have accidentally given birth to the Union’s migration foreign policy.

It is February 2024. Ahead of elections to the European Parliament, several commentators are pointing to the unlikely success of the EU’s migration policy. How did it happen?

The Von der Leyen Commission plans to crack down on widespread abuse of Europe’s asylum system whilst doubling down on relocation as the solution to irregular boat arrivals in the Mediterranean. Can the Schengen area learn the lessons of the 2015-2016 crisis?

By 1 July, free movement should once again be a reality within the EU’s passport-free zone, more or less. The Union is re-opening the single market just in time to secure this year’s agricultural production and the tourist season. The big question now is whether and how to re-open to the rest of the world.