The International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) has released its annual forecast of the 10 migration issues that can shape international migration in 2025. For the first time in years, irregular migration and asylum figures in Europe have decoupled from global trends on displacement. Much suggests that this trend is the result of more restrictive migration policies globally, but it is still too early to speak of a sustainable development. The downward trend, however, will reinforce political debates in Europe that primarily focus on control, externalisation and return.
The number of forcibly displaced people rose to 122.6 million by mid-2024, an increase of 11.5% compared to 2023, UNHCR figures show. This trend was not reflected in European arrival data which have decreased by 40 percent in comparison to the previous year. This development is the result of a mix of measures in the EU but also many other origin and transit regions in the world, ranging from cross-regional agreements including control elements to expulsion programmes, border fortifications and the externalisation of asylum processing.
Europe’s relatively stable migration patterns are a result of problems postponed, not solved. The EU should prepare for volatile scenarios in 2025 that could open a debate on ever more far-reaching ‘innovative solutions’.ICMPD Director General Michael Spindelegger said
Ripple-effect of conflict, and shifting migratory patterns
The incoming US president's focus on strict border reforms and deportations could shift migration flows to Europe with asylum applicants from Venezuela, Colombia and Peru already increasing. If Mr Trump succeeds in large-scale expulsions as promised, the rhetoric and action will impact European policy debates in 2025, strengthening calls for stricter enforcement and pressure on origin and transit countries, leading to more visible measures to curb irregular migration.
Depending on the course of the war, Europe could again see increased inflows with a growing number of Ukrainian refugees. Apart from having to prepare for this scenario, the EU will also have to discuss an exit plan from temporary protection. The residence of Ukrainian beneficiaries continues to solidify with improving labour market participation and increasing shares of males staying in the EU. It will be challenging to find solutions that work but also reflects the needs and interests of the Ukrainian government and society.Mr Spindelegger said
Likewise, conflicts rumbling on elsewhere, from the Middle East to sub-Saharan Africa to Latin America, will continue to drive people towards Europe.
‘Return follows reconstruction’
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria will significantly impact migration, sparking debates on ending protection status and facilitating returns. However, political, practical, and legal hurdles remain. In 2025, migration will remain volatile, with pendulum movements, temporary and permanent returns, and further displacement. Large-scale, durable returns will be challenging to achieve, with a likely focus on promoting voluntary returns closely tied to reconstruction in the country.
While potentially a positive story, the return of Syrian refugees hinges on a fundamental principle: `return follows reconstruction´. Only a coherent and coordinated approach among host countries will allow for voluntary and sustainable returns, and forcing premature repatriation could lead to further displacement,.Mr Spindelegger added
Finally, debates about return will feature more prominently in 2025, as EU Member States weigh the possibility of externalising return procedures in the form of so-called “return hubs”. They will closely follow first-movers like Italy and the progress of ‘asylum processing centres’ in Albania, as a potential model to follow. Thus, the debate could well spark more far-reaching ideas.
The report forecasts ten migration issues to look out for in 2025:
- Global displacement growing at a fast pace.
- European migration trends fraught with uncertainty.
- A world becoming (even) more restrictive toward migration.
- Global effects of the second Trump Presidency.
- The search for “innovative solutions” on irregular migration.
- A European Union focusing on return.
- The unwritten future of Syrian displacement.
- The need to prepare for different outcomes of the war in Ukraine.
- A reinforced debate on the transition of temporary protection.
- The quietly growing role of labour migration.
Watch this space for the release of the full ICMPD Migration Outlook 2025 report, launching on 25 January.